Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS Quick QuoteNTRS - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, the bank’s results benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII). Also, increases in total assets under custody and assets under management balances supported the financials. However, elevated expenses were concerning.

Northern Trust has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10%.

Northern Trust Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Northern Trust Corporation price-eps-surprise | Northern Trust Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS’ third-quarter earnings has been unchanged over the past week at $2.86 per share. The figure indicates a 24.9% increase from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.26 billion, implying a year-over-year rise of 11.8%.

NTRS’ Key Factors & Q3 Estimates

NII & Loans: In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. As interest rates remained unchanged for most of the quarter, the recent hike is less likely to have a significant impact on NTRS’ net interest income and margin in the third quarter of 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $657 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 11.4% rise on a year-over-year basis.

Following solid lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth momentum likely moderated during the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand remained healthy in the third quarter, while consumer and real estate lending stayed firm. Hence, the company is less likely to have witnessed significant growth in average interest-earning assets in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $149 billion, indicating a 6.3% decline from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Non-Interest Income: Northern Trust calculates its asset servicing and wealth management servicing fees using a lag effect, relying on prior-quarter end valuations for these computations. Asset servicing fees comprise custody and fund administration, investment management, securities lending, and other fees.

Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. As such, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in custody and fund administration revenues, as well as its investment management fees.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for custody and fund administration fees is pegged at $531.7 million, indicating a 10.2% rise on a year-over-year basis.

The consensus estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $182 million, implying a 14% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total wealth management fees is pegged at $624.6 million, indicating an 11.8% rise from the year-earlier quarter’s actual.

For the third quarter of 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other operating income is pegged at $67.6 million, suggesting an 11.6% rise on a year-over-year basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.61 billion, implying a 12.1% increase from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have been elevated in the third quarter due to higher compensation costs and continued investments in equipment and software to modernize its technology infrastructure and strengthen operational resiliency.

Asset Quality: Ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated borrowing costs may have strained borrowers’ repayment capacity in the third quarter of 2026. Still, favorable credit trends and continued loan demand are likely to have supported NTRS’ asset quality to some extent. As such, the company is less likely to have maintained elevated reserves during the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $70.8 billion, suggesting a 10.2% decline from the prior quarter's reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for NTRS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northern Trust this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NTRS is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Performances of Other Banks

U.S. Bancorp (USB Quick QuoteUSB - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $1.34, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. The bottom line increased 9.8% from $1.22 in the year-ago quarter.

USB’s results were supported by higher NII, broad-based fee revenue growth and strong loan growth, while the company posted positive operating leverage of 240 basis points. The BTIG acquisition also contributed to capital markets revenue growth. However, increases in non-interest expenses and provisions for credit losses were concerning.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC Quick QuotePNC - Free Report) delivered adjusted earnings per share of $5.09 in the third quarter of 2026, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.97. The bottom line increased 17% from $4.35 in the year-ago quarter.

PNC’s results reflected higher NII, solid loan and deposit growth, and improved operating efficiency. However, higher expenses and increased net loan charge-offs were headwinds.